Read the Marlins vs Brewers Betting Guide – July 28, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Miami Marlins on July 28, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Brewers, enjoying a solid season at 59-45, are in a strong position in the National League, whereas the Marlins, with a dismal 39-66 record, are enduring a rough year. This game at American Family Field marks the third in a series where the Marlins have managed to pull off a surprising 7-3 victory yesterday, despite being the significant underdogs.

Both teams will send right-handed pitchers to the mound, with Tobias Myers starting for the Brewers and Kyle Tyler for the Marlins. Despite Myers boasting a respectable 3.14 ERA this season, his 3.95 xFIP suggests he’s had some luck on his side. Myers has a 6-4 record across 14 starts and is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs. On the other hand, Tyler, with only 4 starts and a 3.92 ERA, has struggled, showing signs of overperformance with a 4.70 SIERA.

The Brewers will likely capitalize on Tyler’s control issues, as he faces a Milwaukee offense that ranks 3rd in walks and will be eager to exploit his high 11.6 BB%. The Brewers’ bats have been reliable, ranking 8th overall in offensive prowess and 5th in team batting average. Watch out for Willy Adames, who has been a consistent threat this season, and Jackson Chourio, who has been hot over the last week with a .400 batting average and a 1.050 OPS.

Miami’s offense, ranked 29th, has struggled, although Josh Bell’s recent surge—highlighted by 5 home runs and a 1.500 OPS over the last week—provides a glimmer of hope. Bryan De La Cruz has also been a standout this season, but it may not be enough to overcome the Marlins’ overall deficiencies.

In the bullpen, the Brewers rank 23rd in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, but the Marlins are only slightly better at 14th. Given these dynamics, it’s no surprise that Milwaukee is a heavy favorite with a moneyline of -200, reflecting a 64% implied win probability. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, also favors the Brewers with a 61% win probability, projecting them to score 4.87 runs compared to Miami’s 4.04.

With the Brewers looking to bounce back from yesterday’s loss and solidify their standing, expect them to leverage their offensive advantages and a favorable pitching matchup to secure a win today.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Kyle Tyler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Kyle Tyler has a reverse platoon split and is stuck squaring off against 6 same-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Otto Lopez has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .257 mark is quite a bit lower than his .308 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Bryan De La Cruz has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  In his previous GS, Tobias Myers performed well and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Eric Haase – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Eric Haase has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (31.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Tyler struggles to strike batters out (7th percentile K%) — great news for Haase.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eric Haase, Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 96 games (+9.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-570)
  Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)