Read the Game Recap for Reds vs Padres – September 8th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in interesting positions in the standings. The Padres are currently 78-65, enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds sit at 72-71, marking an average campaign. This matchup is particularly crucial, as the Padres are looking to solidify their playoff positioning.

In their last outing, the Reds fell short against the Padres, who showcased their pitching prowess. Yu Darvish, projected to start for San Diego, has had a rocky season with a 3-5 record and a troubling ERA of 5.75. However, his 4.37 xFIP indicates that he might be due for a turnaround. Darvish projects to pitch around 5.1 innings and give up approximately 2.1 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the contest competitive.

On the other hand, Nick Lodolo is set to take the mound for Cincinnati. With a solid 8-7 record and an impressive 3.22 ERA, Lodolo has proven to be a reliable arm this season. Yet, he is projected for only 4.8 innings, which raises concerns about his ability to go deep into the game. His strikeout rate is below average at 4.4 batters per game, and he has struggled with hits and walks, which could open the door for the Padres’ offense.

While San Diego’s offense ranks 10th in batting average, they have struggled with power, sitting at 29th in home runs. Conversely, Cincinnati’s offense is slightly better in the rankings but also lacks in slugging, placing 24th in home runs. With the Padres’ bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, they have the advantage in late-game scenarios, making them the favorites in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (93.1 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Austin Hays has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 89.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish will “start” for San Diego Padres in today’s matchup but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Despite posting a .386 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has been very fortunate given the .053 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The San Diego Padres (18.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of batters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 102 games (+10.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 140 games (+23.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.50 Units / 51% ROI)