Read the Game Recap for Red Sox vs Yankees – 06 July 2024

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

On July 6, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium for the second game in their series. The Yankees are having a stellar season with a record of 54-36, positioning them strongly in the American League East. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are also performing well, standing at 48-39. Yesterday, the Red Sox managed to claim a 5-3 victory over the Yankees, who were the favorites with a Moneyline price of -140.

Gerrit Cole, who is currently ranked as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, will start for the Yankees. Despite his shaky 6.23 ERA this season, his 5.65 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and might bounce back. Cole pitched well in his last start on June 30, going five innings with one earned run and six strikeouts. His projections for today include 2.5 earned runs and 6.9 strikeouts over six innings, which could be crucial against the high-strikeout Red Sox offense, ranked 4th in most strikeouts this season.

On the other side, the Red Sox will send Josh Winckowski to the mound. Despite an impressive 2.80 ERA, his 3.99 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate so far. Winckowski has primarily been a bullpen arm this season but has performed commendably in his starts. He is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs and strike out 3.3 batters over five innings today.

Offensively, the Yankees have been a juggernaut, ranking 3rd best overall and 2nd in home runs. However, they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 28th. Aaron Judge has been their standout performer, boasting a .310 batting average, 32 home runs, and a 1.123 OPS. The Red Sox are no slouches either, ranking 7th overall with a good balance of power and speed. Jarren Duran leads their charge with a .282 batting average and 21 stolen bases.

While the Yankees’ bullpen ranks 19th, slightly better than the Red Sox’s 21st, the game is expected to be competitive. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 63% win probability, aligning with their implied odds. With a projected team total of 5.10 runs, the Yankees are favored to rebound and take this important division clash.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Josh Winckowski was rolling in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Rafael Devers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 95.9-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)
  Gerrit Cole has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 6.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Typically, bats like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Josh Winckowski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jose Trevino, the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+11.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+155)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 away games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)