Read the Game Recap for Cardinals vs Rangers – May 30th, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals will face off at Globe Life Field on May 30, 2025, in a pivotal Interleague matchup. The Rangers are currently struggling with a record of 27-30, while the Cardinals boast a solid 32-24 record, positioning them as one of the better teams in the league this season. In their last outings, Texas fell to the Baltimore Orioles 2-0, while St. Louis triumphed over the Philadelphia Phillies 6-4, showcasing a stark contrast in momentum.

Jack Leiter is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, entering with a 3-2 record and a 4.17 ERA this season. Despite a Power Ranking placing him at #271 out of approximately 350 pitchers, his recent performances have shown signs of inconsistency. Leiter struggled in his last start, allowing 6 hits and 5 walks—albeit managing just 2 earned runs. The projections indicate that he is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, alongside a troublesome projection of 4.6 hits allowed.

On the opposing side, Cardinals’ Matthew Liberatore has been a more reliable option, holding a 2.73 ERA and a record of 3-3. His performance has earned him an average ranking among pitchers. Liberatore’s last start was stellar, as he went 7 innings with only 1 earned run while striking out 4 and walking none. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing about 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Rangers rank as the 30th worst in MLB, while the Cardinals sit at an impressive 7th. With the Rangers’ lineup struggling and the projections favoring the Cardinals, this game could tilt heavily in St. Louis’s favor. The current Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for potential scoring, but given the disparity in pitching and recent form, St. Louis looks poised to capitalize on Texas’s shortcomings.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2056 rpm ranks in the 7th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Arenado are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Jack Leiter has a mean projection of 1.8 walks in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Marcus Semien has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-165)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)