Read the Dodgers vs Pirates Betting Guide – September 3, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On September 3, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 62-77, while the Dodgers are in a strong position at 78-60. The Dodgers’ offense is ranked 3rd in MLB, demonstrating their capability to score runs, particularly with their impressive home run tally of 204, the 2nd most in the league.

In their previous matchup, the Dodgers showcased their strength, winning convincingly. Pittsburgh’s pitching will be led by Braxton Ashcraft, who has a solid Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an excellent ERA of 2.58. However, his 3.43 xFIP indicates he might not maintain this level of success and is projected to struggle against the potent Dodgers lineup. Ashcraft is a high-groundball pitcher with a 53% groundball rate, which could work to his advantage against a team that thrives on power.

On the other hand, Shohei Ohtani, projected to start for the Dodgers, has had a rocky season with a 1-1 record and a higher-than-desired ERA of 4.18. Nevertheless, his xFIP of 2.57 suggests he could be due for a turnaround, projecting to allow only 1.9 earned runs and to strike out 6.6 batters on average in this matchup.

The Pirates’ offense, ranking a dismal 29th in MLB, will face a tough challenge against Ohtani and a Dodgers bullpen that’s ranked 3rd overall. With the Pirates’ low implied team total of 3.50 runs, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities to pull off an upset against the Dodgers, who hold a high implied total of 4.50 runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Shohei Ohtani’s 97.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 99th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Andy Pages is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Braxton Ashcraft has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -16.9 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Hits
  Joey Bart has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In today’s matchup, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (84th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 102 games (+22.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI)