Texas Rangers
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-130
As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Texas Rangers on July 6, 2025, they find themselves in a competitive situation with a record of 47-41, an above-average season by their standards. Meanwhile, the Rangers, at 44-45, are hovering around the .500 mark, making this Interleague matchup intriguing. The Padres are coming off a tough loss in their previous game, while the Rangers look to build momentum after a series of inconsistent performances.
On the mound, Kyle Hart is projected to start for the Padres. Hart has struggled this season, with a 6.66 ERA that places him among the lower tiers of MLB pitchers. However, his 5.33 xFIP suggests he may be due for some positive regression. Hart’s average projected innings of 4.9 and his tendency to allow 2.8 earned runs and 5.1 hits could put pressure on the Padres’ bullpen, which ranks 4th best in MLB according to advanced stats.
Opposing him will be Jack Leiter, who has had his own challenges, posting a 4.29 ERA this season. While he has a slightly better record of 4-5, his projections indicate he may struggle against a Padres offense that, despite ranking 23rd overall, has shown flashes of potential. The projections suggest that Leiter will average 5.0 innings but will also allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.1 hits, which could give the Padres a chance to capitalize.
Betting markets are closely watching this matchup, with the Padres favored at -130 and a projected team total of 4.45 runs. Given the state of both offenses and the pitching matchups, this game could be a close contest, with the Padres looking to take advantage of the Rangers’ weaker bullpen, currently ranked 24th in MLB.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Jack Leiter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Kyle Higashioka has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Jonah Heim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)The Texas Rangers have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Hart today, which is especially troublesome given his huge platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.9-mph mark last season has lowered to 85.4-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 19% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+15.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)