Read the Boxscore for Dodgers vs Mariners – Friday September 26th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Seattle Mariners

As the September 26, 2025 game approaches, the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a tight race, each holding a record of 90-69. With both teams enjoying strong seasons, this interleague matchup carries significant weight, particularly as they vie for playoff positioning. The Mariners are projected to start George Kirby, who has had a solid year despite a 4.24 ERA, and he was notably effective in his last outing, pitching a complete game shutout. On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Emmet Sheehan, who boasts an impressive 2.86 ERA, but has shown some signs of luck that may not hold up.

The Mariners’ offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB, with a powerful ability to hit home runs, leading the league with 237 this season. Their ability to turn Sheehan’s flyballs into home runs could be pivotal in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Dodgers rank 3rd in overall offensive performance, underscoring the potential for a high-scoring game, despite both teams being projected to have low implied totals of 3.70 and 3.30 runs, respectively.

George Kirby’s low walk percentage (5.6 BB%) faces off against a Dodgers lineup that is known for drawing walks. However, his strong control may mitigate that advantage. Conversely, Sheehan’s high strikeout rate (30.1 K%) could pose challenges for the Mariners, who rank 6th in MLB for strikeouts.

In terms of pitching depth, the Dodgers boast the top-ranked bullpen, while the Mariners sit at 15th. This could become a critical factor late in the game, especially if it’s a close contest. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs set, bettors should keep an eye on how each team’s strengths and weaknesses play out in this pivotal matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Emmet Sheehan has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.86 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.79 — a 0.93 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Over the last week, Freddie Freeman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen projects as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Dominic Canzone has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 98.6-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 84 of their last 149 games (+18.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 85 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)