Read the Boxscore for Cardinals vs Orioles – Monday May 26th, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Baltimore Orioles

In a clash of struggling and successful teams, the Baltimore Orioles will host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 26, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. While the Orioles linger at the bottom of the standings with an 18-34 record this season, the Cardinals are looking solid at 30-23, placing them in contention for a playoff spot. Both teams faced each other on May 25, with Baltimore breaking a five-game losing streak by winning convincingly, 5-1.

Charlie Morton is projected to start for the Orioles, although he has had a nightmarish season with a record of 0-7 and a towering ERA of 7.68. However, while Morton ranks as the 224th best starting pitcher in MLB, the advanced projections suggest that he might be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP of 4.71 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky in his outings.

On the other hand, Erick Fedde takes the mound for the Cardinals, bringing a more favorable 3-3 record with a solid 3.77 ERA. While Fedde’s overall performance has been good, the projections indicate he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year, as his xFIP stands at 5.06. Both pitchers struggle with walks, but Morton faces a Baltimore lineup that has managed to be patient at the plate, allowing him the possibility to escape trouble if he finds his rhythm.

From an offensive standpoint, the Orioles rank 22nd in MLB for team batting average, indicating they have struggled to generate consistent scoring. In contrast, the Cardinals have a robust offense, ranking 9th overall, led by a standout performance from their best hitter who boasts 32 runs this season. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive production. Given the Orioles’ recent win and Morton’s potential for improvement, this matchup presents an opportunity for Baltimore to build on their momentum.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Erick Fedde has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Willson Contreras has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last year’s 95.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Charlie Morton has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.9% less often this year (54.3%) than he did last season (61.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Ryan O’Hearn has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .315 rate is a fair amount higher than his .271 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+11.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 41 games (+10.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)