Read Rangers vs Astros Picks and Betting Odds – Tuesday September 16, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face off against the Texas Rangers on September 16, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this crucial American League West matchup. The Astros currently hold a record of 82-69, while the Rangers are just behind at 79-72. This makes for a compelling series, especially after the Astros secured a 6-3 victory in their last outing against the Rangers.

On the mound, Houston will send A.J. Blubaugh to the hill, who has had a somewhat mixed season. Though his ERA stands at an impressive 2.45, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for regression, as his xFIP is higher at 4.00. Blubaugh’s recent performances have shown some inconsistency, and he projects to pitch only 4.4 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs. Contrastingly, Texas will counter with Merrill Kelly, who boasts a solid 3.21 ERA and ranks as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB. Kelly has pitched 30 games this season and is expected to go deeper into the game, projecting 5.6 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Astros rank 13th in MLB, but they do excel in batting average, sitting at 7th overall. Meanwhile, the Rangers’ offense has struggled, ranking 26th in MLB. This disparity could play a crucial role, especially considering that Houston’s best hitter is coming off a strong week, including a 1.500 OPS.

As betting markets indicate a close matchup, Houston’s moneyline is set at +100. The Astros may have the edge, especially with their superior batting average and recent success against the Rangers. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this game could hinge on which pitcher can better navigate the opposition’s lineup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-115)
  Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Kyle Higashioka’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 88.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 80.7-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• A.J. Blubaugh – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects A.J. Blubaugh to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jesus Sanchez has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 16.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 24.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Compared to their .339 overall projected rate, the .323 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Houston Astros projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 141 games (+15.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 71 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Michael Helman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Michael Helman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.50 Units / 230% ROI)