Rays vs Tigers Betting Guide – 9/26/24

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays face off in the final game of their series on September 26, 2024, at Comerica Park, there’s more than just a win at stake. The Tigers, sitting at 84-74, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their postseason position in the American League playoff race. Meanwhile, the Rays, with a 78-80 record, are having an average season and are mostly playing for pride at this point.

In their last encounter, the Tigers dominated the Rays with a 7-1 victory, showcasing their current form. Reese Olson, ranked as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, will take the mound for Detroit. Despite a modest 4-8 win/loss record, Olson boasts a solid 3.49 ERA, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. His last outing was an abbreviated but efficient three-inning stint, allowing just one earned run. Olson’s high-groundball rate should neutralize the Rays’ power, which ranks 27th in MLB.

Opposing Olson is Tyler Alexander, who has struggled this season with a 5.35 ERA. Though his peripheral stats suggest some bad luck, projections have him allowing a below-average number of hits and walks, potentially giving the Tigers’ offense, which ranks 24th, an opportunity to capitalize. Detroit’s Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter have been instrumental, with Carpenter being particularly hot over the last week, hitting .357 with two home runs.

While both teams sport strong bullpens, with the Rays ranked 2nd and the Tigers 8th, the projections favor Detroit. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Tigers a 60% chance of victory, aligning with their status as betting favorites. As the series concludes, the Tigers are poised to continue their push toward the playoffs, leveraging their pitching advantage and home-field momentum.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Tyler Alexander is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Josh Lowe has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 94.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Reese Olson’s change-up rate has jumped by 7.1% from last season to this one (15.2% to 22.3%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Tampa Bay’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Torkelson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Parker Meadows hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-155)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 70 games (+19.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 92 of their last 153 games (+26.36 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+24.85 Units / 226% ROI)