Rays vs Phillies Game Highlights – Monday, September 9, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 9, 2024, this Interleague matchup is significant, especially for the Phillies, who are seeking to solidify their playoff positioning. Currently, the Phillies hold a commanding record of 85-58 and rank 4th in MLB for team offense, while the Rays sit at 71-72, struggling with a 26th-best offensive performance in the league.

Despite the Phillies’ strong season, they recently suffered a disappointing defeat against the Miami Marlins, losing 10-1, which may affect their morale entering this game. On the other hand, the Rays had a more favorable outing, winning 2-0 against the Baltimore Orioles, which could give them a slight confidence boost.

Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, coming off a strong performance where he pitched 7 innings with only 2 earned runs, 7 strikeouts, and no walks in his last start. His 3.45 ERA indicates his effectiveness this season, supported by a solid 2.87 FIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. Sanchez’s high groundball rate (59% GB) is well-suited to face a Rays lineup that has been lacking power, ranking 5th least in home runs with just 97 this season.

Conversely, the Rays will rely on Cole Sulser, who has struggled with a 4.35 ERA and a high 13.3% walk rate this season. Facing a potent Phillies offense that ranks 6th in home runs, Sulser’s flyball tendencies (57% FB) could be exploited, making this matchup favor the Phillies.

With a current moneyline of -195 and a high implied team total of 4.61 runs, the projections favor the Phillies to come out on top, especially considering their offensive strengths against a struggling Rays lineup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Cole Sulser – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cole Sulser to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Christopher Morel is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  With a 0.51 discrepancy between Cristopher Sanchez’s 3.40 ERA and his 2.89 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year and should perform better the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Schwarber has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 94.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Projected catcher Garrett Stubbs profiles as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 131 games (+18.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+120/-155)
  Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)