Rays vs Orioles Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Tuesday September 23, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 23, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of a tightly contested matchup. The Orioles, with a record of 73-83, are having a below-average season, while the Rays sit at 76-80, marking their performance as average. This game marks the first in a crucial series for both clubs, particularly for the Orioles, who are looking to build momentum.

In their last outing, the Rays managed to secure a victory, showcasing their offensive prowess. The projections suggest that the Orioles will have a tough time against the Rays’ lineup, especially with Dean Kremer on the mound. Kremer, who has started 29 games this season with a 10-10 record and a 4.39 ERA, is ranked as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is below average. His projections for today suggest he will pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.2 batters. However, he struggles with allowing hits and walks, which could be problematic against a Rays lineup that ranks 8th in batting average.

On the other hand, Ryan Pepiot is projected to start for the Rays. With a slightly better record of 11-11 and a 3.77 ERA, Pepiot is ranked 69th among MLB starters. His projections indicate he could pitch poorly today, averaging only 3.8 innings, but he should still be able to limit damage effectively.

The Orioles’ offense ranks 20th overall and 24th in batting average, which could hinder their chances against a Rays bullpen that is ranked 8th in the league. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair. With the Orioles having a high implied team total of 4.45 runs and the Rays at 4.55, this matchup is shaping up to be a close contest that could swing either way.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Pepiot to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 64 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Jake Mangum has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .298 rate is quite a bit higher than his .258 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tristan Gray, Carson Williams, Bob Seymour).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Dean Kremer’s four-seamer usage has decreased by 5.4% from last season to this one (32.1% to 26.7%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 151 games (+23.43 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 57% ROI)