Rays vs Orioles Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Tuesday September 23, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on September 23, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum late in the season. The Orioles sit at 73-83, having recently lost to the Rays 7-1, while the Rays hold a 76-80 record and are in the midst of an average season. This matchup marks the first game in the series and is critical for both teams as they look to finish strong.

On the mound, the Orioles will rely on Dean Kremer, who has struggled with a 10-10 record and a 4.39 ERA this year. Although Kremer is projected to pitch about 5.6 innings today, his high hit allowance of 5.5 per game could be problematic against a Rays offense that ranks 15th overall in MLB and boasts the 8th best batting average. The projections suggest that Kremer might have trouble against a low-walk Rays lineup, which could lead to a challenging outing.

Conversely, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot. With an 11-11 record and a solid 3.77 ERA, Pepiot is considered above average, even though he has shown some luck in his performance. His projection of 4.3 innings pitched is concerning, but he could thrive against an Orioles offense that ranks 20th overall and 24th in batting average.

Both teams’ bullpens reflect their performance, with the Rays’ bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, contrasting with the Orioles’ 20th ranking. This discrepancy may play a significant role in the outcome of the game. Betting markets have given the Rays a slight edge, reflected in their moneyline of -120, but with the Orioles’ home-field advantage, this matchup is expected to be tightly contested. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, hinting at a potential for a competitive showdown.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Pepiot to throw 74 pitches in this matchup (3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Jake Mangum has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .298 rate is quite a bit higher than his .258 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays bats have struggled when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Dean Kremer’s four-seamer usage has decreased by 5.4% from last season to this one (32.1% to 26.7%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Adley Rutschman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (101% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 151 games (+23.43 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+190/-255)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.55 Units / 126% ROI)