Rays vs Dodgers Game Time – 8/24/2024

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Dodgers, sporting a solid 77-52 record, are enjoying a great season and currently sit in a strong position for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Rays, at 64-64, are having an average season, struggling to find consistency as they aim to stay relevant in the postseason race.

In their last matchup on August 23, the Dodgers emerged victorious with a convincing 7-3 win, showcasing their powerful offense, which ranks as the 3rd best in MLB. Shohei Ohtani continues to be a standout, leading the Dodgers with 40 home runs and a .992 OPS this season. Over the last week, Max Muncy has been particularly hot, contributing significantly with a .400 batting average and 2 home runs.

On the mound, Clayton Kershaw is projected to start for the Dodgers. Despite a 2-2 record this season, his 2.63 ERA is excellent, though his 3.97 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Kershaw’s last outing on August 18 was impressive, as he threw 6 innings with no earned runs. He faces Taj Bradley, who has had an up-and-down season with a 3.55 ERA but has struggled with walks, averaging 1.8 per game.

The projections indicate that the Dodgers are favored to win with a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Rays’ low total of 3.05 runs reflects their struggles at the plate, where they rank 25th in MLB. With the Dodgers’ robust offense and Kershaw on the mound, they appear poised to extend their winning streak against a Rays team that will need a significant turnaround to challenge them effectively.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Tallying 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Taj Bradley places in the 76th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Alex Jackson’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 78.2-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Clayton Kershaw today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In terms of his home runs, Max Muncy has had positive variance on his side this year. His 36.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 127 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.90 Units / 30% ROI)