Rays vs Blue Jays Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/26/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

September 26, 2025, features an exciting American League East matchup as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. With the Blue Jays boasting a strong record of 91-68, they are having a stellar season and currently sit firmly in the playoff race. In contrast, the Rays, at 77-82, have struggled through the season and are not contending for a postseason spot.

In their last encounter, the Blue Jays secured a convincing 6-1 victory, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 4th best in MLB this season. Their batting average stands out as the best in the league, while the Rays have been more average, ranking 14th overall in offense. The previous game saw the Blue Jays’ dominance continue, albeit the Rays lost a nail-biter 6-5.

On the pitching front, Shane Bieber is projected to take the mound for Toronto. He has been effective this year, evidenced by his 3-2 record and a solid 3.57 ERA. His advanced metrics indicate that he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting room for improvement. Bieber’s ability to limit walks will be put to the test against a Rays offense that ranks among the lowest in MLB for walks drawn.

Adrian Houser, slated to pitch for Tampa Bay, boasts a better win-loss record of 8-4 and an impressive 3.18 ERA. However, projections indicate that he may see a decline in performance going forward. Given that the Blue Jays’ offense should have an edge in this matchup, particularly with their elite batting average, they are positioned as significant favorites with a moneyline of -185 and an implied team total of 4.57 runs for today’s game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Adrian Houser’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.7 mph this season (93.8 mph) over where it was last season (92.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  In terms of his batting average, Jake Mangum has had some very good luck this year. His .299 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Shane Bieber has recorded 17.7 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 125 games (+18.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 65 of their last 116 games (+9.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 80% ROI)