Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
(-115/-105)+100
The Los Angeles Angels will host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 6, 2025, in what promises to be a compelling matchup. Both teams are currently struggling to find their footing, with the Angels holding a record of 55-59 and the Rays at 56-59. In their last encounter, the Angels fell to the Rays by a score of 7-3, marking a tough loss in a series where both teams are looking to gain momentum.
Tyler Anderson is projected to take the mound for the Angels. Despite being ranked as the 201st best starting pitcher in MLB, Anderson’s 4.49 ERA this season suggests he’s had some luck on his side, as indicated by his 5.23 xFIP, which points to potential regression. He averages 5.5 innings per start but struggles with earned runs, allowing 3.2 on average, along with a troubling 5.7 hits per game. In his last outing, he pitched 6 innings, giving up 4 earned runs while recording 5 strikeouts.
On the other side, Shane Baz will start for the Rays. Ranked 58th among MLB starters, Baz has an ERA of 4.79, which is below average, but his 3.90 xFIP suggests he might be due for better results. He averages 5.3 innings pitched and projects to allow 2.8 earned runs, making him a more favorable option in this matchup. In his last start, Baz struggled, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings.
The Angels’ offense ranks 21st in the league and is particularly potent in home runs, sitting 5th overall with 160 this season. However, their low batting average of .226, ranking 26th, raises concerns. Conversely, the Rays feature an average offense, ranking 15th overall, but they excel in batting average at 9th and lead the league in stolen bases, adding to their dynamic approach.
With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets view this as a close contest, illustrated by the Angels’ moneyline at +100 and the Rays at -120. The projections favor a slightly higher scoring game, with the Angels expected to score around 4.39 runs and the Rays 4.61. As both teams vie for a series win, the matchup between these two pitchers will be crucial in determining the outcome.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Recording 92.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Shane Baz checks in at the 81st percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed bats in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)In the last two weeks, Nolan Schanuel’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Los Angeles Angels batters as a group rank 2nd- in the league for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 86 games (+13.77 Units / 14% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 104 games (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)Jonny Deluca has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 58% ROI)