Pittsburgh Pirates
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-200
As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates at Progressive Field on August 31, 2024, both teams are coming off an eventful matchup just a day prior, where the Guardians triumphed over the Pirates with a score of 10-8. This Interleague clash sees the Guardians positioned favorably in the standings, boasting a record of 77-58, while the Pirates sit at 62-72, struggling this season.
Cleveland’s Matthew Boyd is projected to take the mound, coming off a solid performance in his last start, where he pitched 6 innings with just 1 earned run. Boyd has shown promise this season, with an ERA of 2.70, ranking him as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP of 4.91 indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, suggesting potential challenges ahead. The Guardians’ bullpen is ranked 4th overall, which could provide a safety net should Boyd encounter any difficulties.
On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with Luis Ortiz, who has struggled this season, highlighted by a 4.74 xFIP. Ortiz’s most recent outing saw him throw 6 scoreless innings, but his overall performance has been inconsistent, and he projects to allow 3.2 earned runs over 5 innings, which could be problematic against a Guardians lineup that, while ranking 20th in offensive production, has been able to capitalize on pitching mismatches.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are favored with a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, while the Pirates are projected to score around 3.65 runs. With the Guardians’ strong bullpen and their recent offensive momentum, they appear poised to secure another victory in this pivotal series.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Luis Ortiz has relied on his cut-fastball 20.5% more often this season (20.8%) than he did last year (0.3%).Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Oneil Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-200)Among all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Will Brennan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Will Brennan has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-200)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 65 games at home (+8.02 Units / 9% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-125)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 97 games (+11.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+7.35 Units / 45% ROI)