Rangers vs Pirates Insights and Game Breakdown – 6/22/2025

Texas Rangers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Texas Rangers on June 22, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 30-48, while the Rangers are slightly better at 38-39. In their last game on June 21, the Pirates lost a close contest to the Rangers by a score of 3-2, marking a continuation of their rough season.

Bailey Falter is projected to take the mound for the Pirates. Despite being ranked as the 216th best starting pitcher in MLB, Falter has managed a respectable ERA of 3.49 this year. However, his 4.66 xFIP suggests he could be in for a rough outing, as it indicates he has been somewhat fortunate. Falter will need to improve on his projections of allowing 3.1 earned runs and 5.7 hits today if the Pirates hope to secure a win.

Opposing him is Jack Leiter, who has also struggled this season, evidenced by his 4.40 ERA and a 5.20 xERA. Leiter’s last start was particularly concerning, as he allowed 6 earned runs over 6 innings. He projects to pitch a mere 4.7 innings today, which may put additional pressure on the Rangers’ bullpen, ranked 24th in MLB.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 29th in MLB in batting average and have hit the fewest home runs this season, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on any mistakes from Leiter. Conversely, the Rangers also rank low offensively at 28th but have shown some life with a decent number of stolen bases.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs, the betting markets view this as a close contest, and both teams are currently at -110 on the moneyline. The Pirates have an implied team total of 4.75 runs, which may be optimistic given their recent offensive struggles. If Falter can outpitch Leiter, the Pirates could very well defy expectations and secure a much-needed victory.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Jack Leiter is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bailey Falter’s change-up utilization has jumped by 6.2% from last season to this one (0.6% to 6.8%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Leiter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+18.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+7.90 Units / 132% ROI)