Rangers vs D-Backs Game Time – 9/01/2025

Texas Rangers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On September 1, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Texas Rangers in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are currently sitting at 68-70, showing some competitiveness but ultimately having an average season. The Rangers, slightly ahead in the standings at 71-67, are also in the midst of an average campaign.

Both clubs have been treading water, but the Diamondbacks’ offense has been particularly impressive, ranking as the 4th best in MLB. This suggests that they have the firepower to capitalize on their home advantage against a struggling Rangers lineup, currently ranked 26th offensively. The Diamondbacks offer a potent combination of a solid power game, ranking 4th in home runs, and a strong batting average ranking at 12th.

On the mound, Ryne Nelson is projected to take the start for the Diamondbacks. Despite allowing a less-than-ideal 5.3 hits on average today, he holds a decent ERA of 3.53 and a commendable 7-3 record this season. In contrast, the Rangers’ Patrick Corbin has struggled, holding a 4.33 ERA and a 7-9 win-loss record, making him one of the worst pitchers in baseball according to advanced metrics. Corbin is expected to pitch just 4.9 innings on average, which could lead to trouble against a powerful Diamondbacks offense.

The Diamondbacks enter this game as the betting favorite, boasting an implied team total of 5.17 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to score against Corbin. Overall, this matchup showcases a clear offensive edge for Arizona, setting the stage for what could be a high-scoring affair with a game total currently set at 9.5 runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Patrick Corbin to throw 84 pitches in this game (9th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  In today’s game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.7% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (64.1 vs. 56% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year’s 89.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Lawlar, Tyler Locklear, Blaze Alexander).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 120 games (+14.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 away games (+13.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)