Prediction and Game Breakdown: Phillies vs Athletics Match Friday May 23, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 23, 2025, at Sutter Health Park, both teams are coming off contrasting results from their last games. The Athletics fell 10-5 to the Seattle Mariners, continuing a rough stretch that has left them with a 22-29 record this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies enjoyed a solid 2-0 victory over the New York Mets, further solidifying their place with a strong 32-18 record.

The matchup features two pitchers with vastly different trajectories this season. Oakland’s Jacob Lopez, projected to start, has struggled, holding a 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and ranking as the 140th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His high walk rate of 17.5% could be problematic against a Phillies offense that ranks 5th overall and draws a significant number of walks. Lopez projects to pitch an average of just 4.4 innings today, which raises concerns about his ability to keep the game competitive.

On the other side, Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler is having an elite season, with a 5-1 record and a stellar 2.67 ERA, ranking as the 4th best starter in MLB. His recent performance includes a dominant outing where he threw 6 innings of shutout baseball against the Mets. Wheeler’s ability to strike out batters (32.8% strikeout rate) may be challenged by an Athletics offense that ranks 4th lowest in strikeouts, providing a glimmer of hope for Oakland.

The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks. With the Athletics as significant underdogs at +170, and the projections favoring the Phillies with a hefty implied team total of 5.51 runs, the stage is set for an intriguing interleague matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-220)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Johan Rojas is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the weak infield defense of Sacramento (#29-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Jacob Wilson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Luis Urias pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-220)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)
  Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 44% ROI)