Cleveland Guardians
Houston Astros
(-120/+100)-205
On July 8, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their series. The Astros are riding high with a solid 55-36 record this season, currently sitting comfortably in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Guardians are struggling at 41-48, unable to find their footing this year.
In their last matchup, the Astros showcased their dominance with a decisive victory, bolstered by their 8th-ranked offense in MLB, which boasts the best team batting average in the league. The Guardians, on the other hand, rank 28th in offense, and their struggles have been evident, especially with a team batting average that is the worst in the league.
Projected to take the mound for the Astros is Hunter Brown, who has been nothing short of elite this season. With a Win/Loss record of 9-3 and an impressive ERA of 1.82, he ranks as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have benefitted from some luck, as his 2.67 xFIP indicates a potential for regression. Brown is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs, which is elite.
The Guardians will counter with Joey Cantillo, who has had a mixed season. With a 3.41 ERA and a ranking of 83rd among MLB starters, he projects to struggle against the Astros’ potent lineup. Cantillo’s ability to rack up strikeouts may be mitigated by the Astros’ low strikeout rate, giving Houston an edge.
With Houston favored heavily at a moneyline of -200, the projections indicate an average team total of 4.06 runs for the Astros, while the Guardians are projected for a meager 2.94 runs. This matchup favors the Astros, who are looking to continue their strong performance as they strive for success in the second half of the season.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joey Cantillo is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of the day.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 86.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 83.8-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 6.9% Barrel% of the Cleveland Guardians makes them the #29 group of hitters in MLB this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has gone to his secondary offerings 6.6% less often this season (40.4%) than he did last season (47%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Extreme groundball batters like Isaac Paredes tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joey Cantillo.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+215/-290)Daniel Schneemann has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)