Player Trends for Athletics vs Brewers – Friday, April 18th, 2025

Athletics

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Oakland Athletics on April 18, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams come into this matchup with differing records, as the Brewers sit at 10-9, showcasing an above-average season, while the Athletics trail slightly with a 9-10 record, indicating a below-average performance. Despite their recent struggles, the Athletics come off a dominant 8-0 win, which could provide a boost in confidence.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, bringing with him a stellar ERA of 2.31. However, the advanced projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as his xFIP of 3.54 likely indicates a drop in performance. Peralta excels in strikeouts with a 30.4% strikeout rate, but he faces an Athletics offense that is the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB. This matchup could neutralize Peralta’s biggest strength.

On the other side, J.T. Ginn will start for the Athletics, boasting a strong ERA of 1.69. Ginn, however, has only pitched in one game this year, and projections indicate he may also have benefitted from some good fortune. He’s not as prolific in strikeouts, averaging just 4.4 strikeouts per game, and has not faced a lineup as powerful as the Brewers yet this season.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 18th overall, while the Athletics rank 8th, reflecting their strong hitting capabilities, particularly in home runs, where they rank 5th in MLB. With the Brewers being favored at a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.53 runs, there’s potential for them to capitalize on their home field advantage. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair is expected.

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Considering that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, J.T. Ginn (50.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 6 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Barrel% of Tyler Soderstrom has significantly improved, with an increase from 14.6% last year to 20.4% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Brent Rooker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Freddy Peralta will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Christian Yelich will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Athletics only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.2° figure is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)
  Jacob Wilson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)