Player Rankings for Pirates vs Rockies – 8/03/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field on August 3, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League West with a dismal 30-80 record, while the Pirates are hovering near the bottom of the National League Central at 47-64. This matchup marks the third game of their series, with the Pirates taking the previous contest.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Bradley Blalock, who has had a tough season with a 1-2 record and a dreadful ERA of 7.09. While his xFIP of 4.80 suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve, Blalock’s projections are still concerning, as he is expected to pitch just 4.2 innings and allow 3.5 earned runs on average. Conversely, the Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller, a right-hander who has been more effective this season, holding a respectable ERA of 3.69 despite a 4-10 record. Keller is projected to average 5.6 innings pitched, allowing 3.7 earned runs, but his below-average strikeout rate could be a concern against a Rockies offense that leads MLB in strikeouts.

Both teams have had a tough time at the plate as well, with the Rockies ranking 25th in offensive production and the Pirates sitting at the 30th spot. The Rockies’ best hitter has been on a hot streak, boasting a .520 batting average and a 1.658 OPS over the past week, which could provide some much-needed support for Blalock. Meanwhile, despite their low overall ranking, the Pirates’ offense has shown some life with their best hitter contributing significantly in recent games.

With the Game Total set at an elevated 11.5 runs, bettors should closely monitor the pitching matchup and offensive trends as the Rockies look to capitalize on their home field advantage against a struggling Pirates team.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Mitch Keller’s slider rate has jumped by 8.9% from last season to this one (25.1% to 34%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Oneil Cruz will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Bradley Blalock’s 2098-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Colorado Rockies bats as a unit rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 8th-worst) as it relates to their 89-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+8.45 Units / 94% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+20.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.80 Units / 40% ROI)