Player Rankings for Pirates vs Rockies – 8/03/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 3, 2025, at Coors Field for the third game of their series. The Rockies are struggling mightily this season with a record of 30-80, while the Pirates sit at 47-64. Both teams are having challenging years, but this matchup has the potential to draw interest due to the recent performance of the Rockies, who managed to win their last game against the Pirates by a score of 8-5.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Bradley Blalock, who has had a rough season overall, with an ERA of 7.09 in just six starts. However, he pitched well in his last outing on July 28, going six innings with no earned runs and striking out seven. While Blalock ranks as the 317th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.80 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward.

Opposing him will be Mitch Keller, who has a much more respectable ERA of 3.69 this season. Although Keller’s last start wasn’t ideal, lasting only two innings and allowing three earned runs, he has been a more reliable option for the Pirates, starting 22 games this year. Keller is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Rockies offense that is 2nd in the league for strikeouts, which could play into his favor.

The Rockies’ offense ranks 25th in MLB, while the Pirates are at the bottom, ranking 30th. Notably, the Rockies have an implied team total of 5.05 runs for this game, indicating expectations for better offensive production. This game has a high total of 11.0 runs, suggesting a potential for scoring, especially if either pitcher struggles to find their rhythm.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Mitch Keller’s slider rate has jumped by 8.9% from last season to this one (25.1% to 34%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Oneil Cruz will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates (25.5% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-most strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Bradley Blalock’s 2098-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Hunter Goodman has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .360 figure is considerably higher than his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+8.45 Units / 94% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+20.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.80 Units / 40% ROI)