Player Props Preview for Giants vs Brewers – 8/23/25

San Francisco Giants

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 23, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with distinct narratives. The Brewers, currently sitting at 81-48 and enjoying a great season, have already clinched a Wild Card spot, while the Giants, at 61-68, are struggling and ranked 26th in MLB offense. In their last contest, the Brewers edged the Giants with a narrow 5-4 victory, further solidifying their upper hand in this series.

Freddy Peralta is set to take the mound for the Brewers, boasting an impressive 15-5 record and a stellar 2.78 ERA this year. Peralta’s last start was particularly noteworthy, as he pitched six scoreless innings, allowing just one hit, which showcases his current form. However, the projections suggest that he might be due for some regression, as his 4.00 xFIP indicates he has experienced a bit of luck this season.

On the other side, Logan Webb will start for the Giants. Although he has an elite ranking as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 11-9 record and 3.19 ERA reveal that he’s been somewhat unlucky, with a low 2.65 xFIP suggesting he could be in line for better outcomes moving forward. Webb’s recent performance has also been strong, as he pitched seven innings without allowing any earned runs in his last outing.

From an offensive perspective, the Brewers rank 11th overall and 3rd in team batting average, while the Giants are struggling at 29th in batting average and 26th overall, which heavily favors Milwaukee in this matchup. Given these dynamics, and with the Brewers holding a significant edge in both pitching and hitting, they are positioned well to continue their winning ways. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, the Brewers’ solid all-around performance is expected to shine through, making them a favorable option for bettors.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Logan Webb’s 2114-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 13th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  There has been a decrease in Jung Hoo Lee’s average exit velocity this year, from 88.9 mph last year to 86.7 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Luis Matos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Luis Matos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Compared to the average hurler, Freddy Peralta has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 4.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 112 games (+30.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 112 games (+12.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andruw Monasterio – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+360/-530)
  Andruw Monasterio has hit the Walks Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)