Player Props Preview for Cubs vs Marlins – 8/23/24

Chicago Cubs

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons, with the Marlins at 46-81 and the Cubs at 63-65. The Marlins are ranked 29th in offensive production across MLB, while the Cubs sit at 21st, indicating that both lineups have struggled to generate consistent scoring.

In their last outing, the Marlins suffered a tough loss, continuing their streak of poor performances. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been somewhat more competitive, although they have not been able to string together wins. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams will be eager to start on a positive note.

On the mound, the Marlins are set to start Max Meyer, who has had an up-and-down campaign with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 5.58. The projections suggest Meyer may be better than his numbers indicate, as his xFIP is 1.21 points lower than his ERA, hinting at some misfortune this season. Conversely, Kyle Hendricks takes the hill for the Cubs, struggling with a 3-10 record and an even worse ERA of 6.35. Both pitchers are right-handed, and with Hendricks also projected to allow a high number of hits (5.9), the Marlins may find some opportunities to capitalize.

Despite their rankings, the betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Marlins holding a +110 moneyline and the Cubs at -130. With a game total set at an average 8.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on which offense can find a rhythm early. The Marlins will look to Otto Lopez, who has been their best hitter recently, recording 8 hits in the last week, while the Cubs will lean on Ian Happ, who has also shown flashes of productivity. This game presents a critical opportunity for both teams to gain momentum as the season winds down.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.4% more often this year (51.1%) than he did last year (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Isaac Paredes has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 79.1-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Max Meyer’s 2397-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 81st percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xavier Edwards’s true offensive skill to be a .302, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .076 gap between that figure and his actual .378 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 57 games at home (+22.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.55 Units / 37% ROI)