Player Prop Picks for Royals vs Brewers – 4/2/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Kansas City Royals on April 2, 2025, at American Family Field in what has become a crucial interleague matchup for both teams, each struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Brewers currently sit at 1-4, while the Royals are slightly ahead at 2-3. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, and this game could be pivotal in gaining momentum.

In their last outing, the Brewers suffered another defeat, continuing their rough start to the season. Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee, bringing a solid 3.60 ERA this year, backed by an xFIP of 2.42, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. Peralta has shown promise with a strikeout average of 7.0 batters per game, though he needs to improve on allowing 4.3 hits and 1.7 walks per outing. His performance could be key against a Royals lineup that ranks 27th in MLB offensive metrics.

On the other side, Cole Ragans is set to start for Kansas City. Ragans, who has a less impressive ERA of 5.40 this season, has also dealt with tough luck, as suggested by his lower xERA and FIP. He is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters on average.

Both teams are struggling offensively, with the Brewers ranking 45th and the Royals at 27th in overall team performance. Betting markets currently have the moneyline set at -110 for both teams, indicating a close contest. However, with Peralta’s potential for a standout performance and the Brewers’ bullpen ranked 15th overall, Milwaukee may have the edge in this matchup. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the expectations of a tightly contested game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans should be in good shape facing 6 hitters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Rhys Hoskins is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games (+15.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Michael Massey has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 58% ROI)