Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Cubs vs Brewers – May 03, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On May 3, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field in a National League Central clash. This matchup is pivotal for both teams, as the Cubs, currently sitting at 20-13 and enjoying a strong season, will look to maintain their momentum against the Brewers, who are struggling at 16-17. In their last encounter, the Cubs secured a win, adding to their impressive record.

Jose Quintana, projected to start for the Brewers, boasts a perfect 4-0 record with an excellent ERA of 1.14 this season. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as indicated by a 4.33 xFIP that points to potential luck rather than sustained dominance. Quintana’s groundball-heavy approach (47 GB%) could serve him well against a powerful Cubs lineup that has hit 49 home runs, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Jameson Taillon, the Cubs’ starter, has had an average season with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 4.01. While he has not been as effective as Quintana, he is projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs, which is in line with his typical performance. Taillon’s strikeout rate is below average, and he will need to limit walks to navigate the Brewers’ lineup effectively.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 2nd overall in MLB, showcasing their ability to hit for average and power. In contrast, the Brewers rank 17th in overall offensive production and 22nd in home runs, indicating their struggles at the plate. With the game total set at 8.5 runs and both teams having average implied totals of 4.25 runs, this matchup could be closer than the records suggest. The Brewers need to leverage their home-field advantage, while the Cubs aim to capitalize on their superior offensive firepower.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Considering that flyball hitters have a big edge over groundball pitchers, Jameson Taillon and his 37.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in today’s outing facing 1 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Quintana.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .331, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .347 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jose Quintana’s sinker usage has spiked by 17.7% from last season to this one (30.4% to 48.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)