
New York Yankees
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Toronto Blue Jays
-125O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+105
(-110/-110)+105
New York Yankees Insights
- Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Cameron Schlittler’s 97-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 94th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the New York Yankees in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Kevin Gausman has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Yohendrick Pinango – Over/Under Total BasesYohendrick Pinango has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 95.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineThe Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Cam Schlittler has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
