Player Prop Bets for Tigers vs Royals – May 31st, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals host the Detroit Tigers on May 31, 2025, in the second game of their series after the Tigers took the opener 7-5. With the Royals sitting at 30-28 and the Tigers boasting an impressive 38-20 record, this matchup highlights a clear disparity in performance this season.

Projected starters Michael Wacha for the Royals and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers present a compelling contrast. Wacha, ranked 85th among MLB starting pitchers, has had an above-average season with a 3.21 ERA, but his 4.32 xFIP suggests he may be due for a downturn. He’s projected to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. However, his low strikeout rate of 17.0% could be problematic against a Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, Skubal stands out as the 1st best starting pitcher in the league, sporting an excellent 2.49 ERA and an impressive 35.0% strikeout rate. His last outing was nothing short of remarkable, as he pitched a complete game shutout, striking out 13 batters. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing only 2.1 earned runs, which could spell trouble for a Royals offense that ranks 26th overall.

With the Royals’ offense struggling to generate power—ranking last in home runs—Skubal’s flyball tendency may not be tested effectively. Meanwhile, despite their low strikeout rate, the Royals could exploit Skubal’s tendency to throw strikes. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.57 runs for the Tigers, indicating their offensive prowess, while the Royals are projected to struggle with a low total of just 3.43 runs. This game presents a classic matchup of a high-performing pitcher against an underwhelming offense, making it a challenging night for Kansas City.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Tallying 18.7 outs per GS this year on average, Tarik Skubal falls in the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Colt Keith has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 86.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Michael Wacha has gone to his change-up 7.5% less often this year (24.8%) than he did last season (32.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Salvador Perez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tarik Skubal.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Today, Vinnie Pasquantino is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-185)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 46% ROI)