Player Predictions Overview for Astros vs Padres – 9/18/2024

Houston Astros

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros clash in the third game of their interleague series on September 18, 2024, at Petco Park, both teams are vying for a crucial win with playoff implications. The Padres, boasting an 86-66 record, are having a strong season, but with a recent 4-3 loss to the Astros, they remain just ahead of their opponents, who sit at 82-69 and are experiencing a slightly above-average year.

The Padres will have Dylan Cease on the mound, a high-strikeout right-hander ranked 25th among starting pitchers, who has shown consistency with a 3.58 ERA. However, he faces a challenge against the Astros’ lineup, which ranks 3rd in team batting average and is known for their low strikeout rate. Cease’s ability to navigate this lineup will be pivotal, especially considering his recent six-inning shutout performance with 10 strikeouts against his previous opponent.

For the Astros, southpaw Framber Valdez, ranked 12th, brings an impressive 2.91 ERA into the game. Despite his strong season, Valdez will be tested by a Padres offense that ranks 1st in team batting average and 6th overall. With Valdez projecting an average of 5.9 innings and 2.4 earned runs today, the Astros will look to their good bullpen, ranked 8th, to maintain the edge they gained in their last meeting.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Padres a slight 52% edge in this tightly contested matchup. Despite identical moneylines at -110, suggesting an evenly matched game, the Padres might harness their superior bullpen and recent offensive surge from Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been scorching with a 0.375 average and three homers over the last week, to secure a much-needed victory.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Framber Valdez’s curveball utilization has spiked by 6.3% from last year to this one (24.4% to 30.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jon Singleton hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Over his last 3 starts, Dylan Cease has experienced a substantial fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2556 rpm over the entire season to 2497 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Elias Diaz is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 72 games (+12.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+17.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+630/-1200)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 46 games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)