Player Predictions for Rockies vs Reds – July 13, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Colorado Rockies on July 13, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup for both teams. Currently, the Reds stand at 49-47, hovering around .500 and looking to solidify their position in the Wild Card race. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling significantly with a dismal 22-73 record, marking one of the worst seasons in MLB.

In their previous game, the Reds showcased their offensive potential, winning decisively against the Rockies, who are in dire need of a turnaround. This matchup features an intriguing pitching duel: Nick Martinez for the Reds and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. Martinez, ranked as the 99th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, has had an average season, boasting a 6-9 record and a 4.85 ERA. However, projections suggest he has been unlucky, as his 4.11 xERA indicates he should perform better moving forward.

On the other hand, Gomber has struggled mightily this year, with an 0-2 record and an alarming 5.92 ERA. He’s projected to allow 3.5 earned runs over 5.0 innings, which could spell trouble against a Reds offense ranked 15th overall, showcasing average talent. Their best hitter has been hot lately, posting a .368 batting average and a 1.263 OPS over the past week.

With the Reds favored heavily in the betting market, the current moneyline stands at -235, suggesting an implied team total of 5.70 runs. Given the Rockies’ struggles both offensively and on the mound, this matchup heavily favors Cincinnati, who looks to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Rockies’ ongoing woes.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Austin Gomber’s fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this year (88.4 mph) below where it was last season (90.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Colorado’s 88.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in baseball: #24 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Elly De La Cruz has strong power (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber struggles to strike batters out (17th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+13.87 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)