Player Insights for Mariners vs Pirates – 8/17/24

Seattle Mariners

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on August 17, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested Interleague series. The Pirates currently hold a record of 57-64, while the Mariners sit at 63-60. The Pirates are having a below-average season, and this matchup comes on the heels of their recent victory over the Mariners, where they won 5-3 on August 16. This victory was crucial, especially given that the Pirates’ offense ranks 27th in MLB, indicating that they’ve struggled to score consistently.

On the mound, the Pirates are set to start Bailey Falter, who has had a challenging season with a 5-7 record and a 4.07 ERA. His 4.77 xFIP suggests that he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, and he projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average. Falter’s low strikeout rate of 16.2% could be a concern, particularly against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts.

Opposing him is Luis Castillo, who boasts a solid 3.40 ERA and is ranked as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB. Castillo’s last outing was impressive, as he allowed just one earned run over six innings, registering nine strikeouts. He projects for 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average.

Despite the Mariners’ offensive struggles, as they rank 28th overall and dead last in batting average, they find themselves as betting favorites with a high implied team total of 4.35 runs. Meanwhile, the projections indicate that the Pirates may end up scoring around 4.29 runs, making them a potential value play at +130 on the moneyline, despite their overall below-average performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Due to his large platoon split, Luis Castillo should be in good shape facing 6 batters in the projected offense who share his hand in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Mitch Garver is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners hitters as a unit rank 4th- in baseball for power this year when using their 9.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Bailey Falter’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.1 mph this season (91.2 mph) over where it was last year (90.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Joey Bart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+12.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Dylan Moore has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 55% ROI)