Player Analysis for Red Sox vs Twins – July 28, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Minnesota Twins

On July 28, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Boston Red Sox at Target Field for the first game of their series. The Twins are currently struggling with a 50-55 record, placing them below average this season. In contrast, the Red Sox are performing well at 57-50, positioning them above average and in contention for a playoff spot.

The Twins are projected to start Simeon Woods Richard, who has a Win/Loss record of 5-4 and an ERA of 4.14. While Woods Richard ranks as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate this year. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, and he typically strikes out 4.3 batters per game. However, his high hit projection of 5.0 and 1.5 walks could be concerning against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Richard Fitts will take the mound for Boston, carrying a 1-4 record and a 4.86 ERA. Despite being considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, projections show he may improve, as his xFIP of 4.03 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. Fitts also projects to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs with a strikeout rate of 4.1, which bodes well against the Twins’ average offense.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 6th in MLB, compared to the Twins’ 16th. The difference in offensive capabilities could play a pivotal role in this matchup, especially given the Twins’ below-average batting average. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, both teams are expected to score, but the Red Sox’s strong lineup may ultimately give them the edge in this contest.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  With a 5.61 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control), Richard Fitts falls in the 17th percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Roman Anthony has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph to 98.7-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kody Clemens has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 37.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 26.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Minnesota Twins bats as a unit rank among the elite in MLB this year (7th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 37 away games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 37% ROI)