Player Analysis for Guardians vs Cardinals - April 13, 2026

-115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-105

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Compared to the average pitcher, Gavin Williams has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 6.9 adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
In terms of his home runs, Steven Kwan has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His 9.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 1.9.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
The Cleveland Guardians (20.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Matthew Liberatore has used his change-up 7.7% more often this year (20.3%) than he did last season (12.6%).
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
Pedro Pages has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
St. Louis Cardinals batters as a group rank near the top of Major League Baseball since the start of last season (10th-) as far as their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Chase DeLauter – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
Chase DeLauter has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)

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