Pirates vs Reds Betting Guide and Expert Picks April 11th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on April 11, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season with identical records of 5-8. The Reds have had a particularly rough patch, coming off a loss to the Pirates, where they fell 8-6. This matchup marks the first game in their series, setting the stage for a potentially tense encounter.

The Reds will send Brady Singer to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has started the season strong with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.25 ERA. Singer’s performance has been above average, ranking as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to strike out batters is a significant advantage, especially against a Pirates offense that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts. The projections suggest that Singer will pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs, which could bode well for the Reds’ chances.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher whose struggles this season are evident with an 0-1 record and a troubling 8.10 ERA. Despite a better-than-expected xFIP of 3.84, Falter’s last outing saw him surrender 7 earned runs, signaling he may be in for another tough night. The Reds’ offense, while ranked 27th overall, has shown flashes of potential, particularly in power with a middle-of-the-pack ranking in home runs.

Given that Brady Singer is facing a high-strikeout Pirates lineup and the Reds are favored with a moneyline of -160, this matchup could provide Cincinnati with a much-needed win to turn their season around. With a projected team total of 4.42 runs, the Reds have the opportunity to capitalize on Falter’s vulnerabilities and secure a victory at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Bailey Falter’s 2041.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 93-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jack Suwinski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  As it relates to his home runs, TJ Friedl has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 21.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Projected catcher Jose Trevino grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 46% ROI)