Pirates vs Mets Betting Line and Odds - March 28, 2026

+150O/U: 7.5
(-105/-115)-170

Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Considering the 0.52 difference between Mitch Keller’s 7.66 K/9 and his 8.18 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see better results going forward.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
Brandon Lowe is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The 7.9% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates grades them out as the #25 club in the league since the start of last season by this standard.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
David Peterson’s 90.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 10th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Checking in at the 100th percentile, Juan Soto has hit 56.9% of his balls in the air since the start of last season with a velocity of 100 mph or greater.
Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 70 games at home (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 153 games (+24.60 Units / 15% ROI)
Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)

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