Pirates vs Mets Betting Guide and Expert Picks May 14th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets

The New York Mets host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 14, 2025, in the third game of their series, following a narrow victory for the Mets by a score of 2-1 yesterday. The Pirates, currently struggling with a record of 14-29, are sitting in the basement of the National League Central, while the Mets are enjoying a successful campaign at 28-15. This matchup shines a spotlight on the contrasting fortunes of both teams, as the Mets aim to maintain their strong season against a struggling Pirates squad.

Mets’ starter Clay Holmes is projected to pitch with effectiveness. Ranking as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Holmes boasts a solid 5-1 record with an impressive 2.74 ERA. His recent performance includes a well-executed outing on May 9, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, along with 5 strikeouts. The projections indicate he will likely allow approximately 1.6 earned runs today, showcasing his elite potential.

On the other hand, Bailey Falter, projected to start for the Pirates, has had a rocky year with a 2-3 record and a 4.36 ERA. Although he pitched well in his last start on May 9, not allowing any earned runs, he faces a challenging Mets lineup that ranks 5th overall in MLB offense. This season, the Mets have shown their strength with a batting average ranked 8th and home runs ranked 10th, posing a significant threat to Falter.

Given the current odds, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -260, projecting an implied team total of 4.59 runs. In contrast, the Pirates, as underdogs at +220, face a daunting task with a low projected total of 2.91 runs. With the Mets riding momentum from their recent success, they appear well-positioned to take another win.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Bailey Falter’s fastball spin rate of 2078 rpm ranks in the 3rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ji-wan Bae – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Ji Hwan Bae is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Alexander Canario, Matt Gorski).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Clay Holmes (57.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Tyrone Taylor has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.5-mph dropping to 71.6-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games (+7.69 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)