Pirates vs D-Backs Value Bets and Betting Line – 5/28/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 28, 2025, in a matchup that could have implications for both teams as they look to improve their standings. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 27-28, experiencing an average season, while the Pirates languish at 20-36, marking a dismal performance thus far.

In their previous game, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 4th in MLB, by taking down the Pirates in a thrilling contest. Zac Gallen is projected to start for Arizona, bringing a solid pedigree as the 53rd best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, despite a challenging season with a 3-6 record and a 5.25 ERA. Gallen’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters, though he’ll need to improve on his average of 5.4 hits allowed.

On the other hand, Paul Skenes, projected as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, is set to take the mound for Pittsburgh. With a 3-5 record and an impressive 2.36 ERA, Skenes is likely to be a tough challenge for the Diamondbacks. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing only 2.1 earned runs, but he may struggle against a high-powered Arizona offense that excels at making contact.

Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Diamondbacks favored at -130, reflecting their better overall performance and offensive depth compared to the struggling Pirates. With the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive metrics and Gallen’s potential for a bounce-back performance, they are well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Compared to the average starter, Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 7.7 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Oneil Cruz is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Zac Gallen has relied on his curveball 5.9% less often this season (21.8%) than he did last year (27.7%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Pittsburgh’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Alek Thomas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Alexander Canario has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 away games (+9.50 Units / 136% ROI)