Pirates vs Cubs Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/04/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on September 4, 2024, they find themselves in a tight National League Central battle. The Cubs, with a record of 71-68, aim to bounce back from a disappointing 5-0 loss against the Pirates just a day prior. Meanwhile, the Pirates, at 65-73, are looking to capitalize on their recent success over the Cubs and put some distance between themselves and the bottom of the divisional standings.

Projected starters Shota Imanaga and Domingo German present an intriguing matchup. Imanaga, ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, boasts an impressive ERA of 3.14 this season. He’s faced some luck this year, as suggested by his higher xFIP of 3.73, but nonetheless, he remains a reliable option for the Cubs. In contrast, German has struggled, with a dismal 6.11 ERA and an elevated walk rate of 14.6%, making him a target for the Cubs’ patient offense that ranks 5th in MLB in walks drawn.

While the Cubs have an average offensive output, they stand out in drawing walks and making the most of their opportunities. The projections anticipate the Cubs to score around 4.83 runs against German, who has had trouble limiting damage. Conversely, the Pirates’ offense has been ineffective, ranking 27th in MLB and struggling to generate consistent scoring.

With the Cubs positioned as significant favorites with a moneyline of -220, there’s a favorable outlook for them to rebound from their recent struggles. As the leading MLB projection system suggests, the Cubs are expected to have the edge in this matchup, highlighting the potential for value betting on the Pirates given their strong performance the previous day.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Domingo German – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Domingo German’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.5% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all SPs, Shota Imanaga’s fastball spin rate of 2444 rpm grades out in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Miguel Amaya has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 106 games (+12.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)