Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)-200
As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in the standings. The Angels boast a record of 11-10, positioning themselves at a midpoint in the season, while the Pirates struggle with a dismal 8-15 record, reflecting a rough start to their campaign.
The Angels are projected to hand the ball to right-hander Jose Soriano, who has been a solid performer with a 3.16 ERA and a ranking as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. In his four starts this season, Soriano has shown flashes of brilliance, though indicators like his 4.29 xERA suggest he could be poised for regression. However, he faces a Pirates offense that ranks 28th overall, and ranks 29th in batting average, which could work in his favor. With the Pirates also registering the 5th most strikeouts in MLB, Soriano’s low strikeout rate could become an advantage as he attempts to keep hitters off balance.
On the other side, Pittsburgh will counter with lefty Bailey Falter, whose struggles are evident as he sits among the worst pitchers in the league this year with a 4.91 ERA. Falter’s high flyball rate could spell trouble against an Angels lineup that ranks 4th in home runs, creating a scenario that favors Los Angeles. The Angels’ offense, while not particularly strong overall (ranking 22nd), possesses notable power potential that could capitalize on Falter’s weaknesses.
With Los Angeles as a significant betting favorite, their projected team total sits at a healthy 4.82 runs for the matchup. This game represents a crucial opportunity for the Angels to build momentum against a struggling Pirates side while highlighting the challenges that Pittsburgh faces with their current roster.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Bailey Falter’s sinker percentage has spiked by 9.2% from last season to this one (14.2% to 23.4%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season’s 94.1-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- It may be wise to expect better results for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Jose Soriano’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.6 mph this season (96.1 mph) below where it was last year (97.7 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Mike Trout is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in MLB: #23 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)