Picks and Betting Line for Yankees vs Guardians Tuesday, April 22, 2025

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

On April 22, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Yankees at Progressive Field in what promises to be an exciting matchup. The Guardians are riding high after a 6-4 victory against the Yankees in their last game on April 21, while both teams have shown impressive form this season—Cleveland with a record of 13-9 and New York at 14-9.

Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee is set to take the mound, despite a rocky start to the season. His 5.85 ERA and 1-2 record aren’t ideal, but his projections suggest he could fare better against a Yankees offense known for striking out frequently—ranking 3rd in the league. Bibee’s average strikeout rate of 17.2% could play to his advantage as he faces a high-strikeout lineup, although his flyball tendency (43% FB rate) poses a risk against a power-hitting team that has smashed 40 home runs this year, leading MLB.

Will Warren, projected to start for New York, has shown flashes of promise with a 1-0 record and a 5.17 ERA. However, he’s considered one of the worst pitchers in the league, which is a concern for the Yankees. The projections indicate he has been unlucky, suggesting he might improve, but a matchup against a solid Guardians bullpen—ranked 1st in MLB—could complicate matters for Warren.

Offensively, the Yankees are a juggernaut, boasting the 1st-best ranking in MLB and a .284 team batting average. In contrast, the Guardians rank 16th in offense. Given these dynamics, Cleveland’s best hitter is currently in strong form, with a .333 batting average this season and a staggering 1.400 OPS over the past week. This could lead to an intriguing battle as both teams aim to secure the win.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Will Warren (45.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Cleveland’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Bibee.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.334 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .349 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Bibee has utilized his secondary pitches 9.6% less often this year (46.7%) than he did last year (56.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kyle Manzardo has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.5% rate last season to 20.4% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)