Picks and Betting Line for Reds vs Royals Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on May 27, 2025, they find themselves in a critical series after dropping the first game 7-4 the day before. Currently, the Royals sit above .500 at 29-26, while the Reds are at 27-28, making this an intriguing interleague matchup.

Projected starters Daniel Lynch and Brady Singer present a compelling contrast on the mound. Lynch, a left-handed pitcher, has shown a remarkable ERA of 1.57 this season, although his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for regression. He has not started a game this year but boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 3-1. On the other hand, Singer, a right-handed pitcher, has a less favorable ERA of 4.88 and has struggled with walks, posting a 10.0 BB% this season.

The Reds’ offense ranks 12th in MLB and is bolstered by their fourth-best strikeout rate, which may play into Lynch’s favor as he is known for being a low-strikeout pitcher. Meanwhile, the Royals offense, rated 26th overall, continues to struggle, particularly in power numbers, ranking dead last in home runs. This lack of offensive firepower could be a significant factor against a pitcher like Singer, who tends to give up fly balls but faces an impatient Royals lineup.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the betting outlook leans slightly towards the Royals with a moneyline of -125. However, given Lynch’s projected performance of 3.1 innings with 1.4 earned runs allowed on average, the Reds may find opportunities to capitalize and turn the tide in this pivotal series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Gavin Lux, Will Benson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 55 games (+24.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)