Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs Astros Monday, July 29, 2024)

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros, sitting at 55-50, are hosting the 53-52 Pittsburgh Pirates at Minute Maid Park on July 29, 2024. Both teams are looking to gain some momentum as they head into the final third of the season. The Astros have been having an above-average season, while the Pirates are hovering around the .500 mark.

Houston will send Tayler Scott to the mound, who has been excellent out of the bullpen this year with a 1.45 ERA, despite his 3.81 xFIP suggesting some luck has been involved. However, Scott has not started a game this season, which could be a concern for the Astros’ pitching depth. On the other side, Pittsburgh will counter with Paul Skenes, the #3 ranked starting pitcher in MLB. Skenes boasts a stellar 1.93 ERA and has consistently been dominant, although his 2.55 xERA indicates he might have been a bit fortunate as well.

Houston’s offense, ranked 9th overall and 2nd in team batting average, will need to capitalize on their contact skills against Skenes, a high-strikeout pitcher. The Astros’ ability to avoid strikeouts (3rd least in MLB) and their tendency to swing early could neutralize Skenes’ biggest strength. On the flip side, the Pirates’ offense has struggled, ranking 28th overall. They’ll need a big game from Oneil Cruz, who has been their standout performer with 17 home runs and a .777 OPS this season.

Last night, Houston fell to the Dodgers 6-2, despite entering the game with a 55% implied win probability. Conversely, the Pirates edged out the D-Backs 6-5, with a 48% implied win probability, showing their resilience in tight games.

Despite the Astros being home underdogs with a +115 moneyline and a 45% implied win probability, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, also projects them at a 45% chance to win. Betting markets expect a close game with a total set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair.

With Houston’s bullpen ranked 16th and Pittsburgh’s 12th, the game could hinge on late-inning performances. If the Astros can provide Scott with early run support and maintain their offensive efficiency, they have a legitimate shot to upset the favored Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  Paul Skenes is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #6 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Yasmani Grandal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Using Statcast metrics, Yasmani Grandal is in the 2nd percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .258.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jared Triolo, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Tayler Scott in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Yordan Alvarez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 14.4% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston’s 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #26 squad in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 games (+14.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+11.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)