Picks and Betting Guide for Padres vs Reds – Friday, June 27, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on June 27, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Reds currently sit at 42-39 this season, showcasing an above-average performance, while the Padres are slightly ahead with a record of 44-36, indicating a good season. This matchup marks the beginning of their series, adding an extra layer of intensity.

In their last game, the Padres struggled, but the Reds capitalized on inconsistencies, which might have implications for today’s contest. The Reds are projected to start Nick Martinez, who has been an average pitcher this season with a ranking of 97th among starting pitchers in MLB, sporting a 4-8 record and a 4.40 ERA. On the other side, the Padres will counter with Dylan Cease, a top-tier starter ranked 20th, though he’s had a tough year with just a 3-6 record and a 4.43 ERA.

Interestingly, both pitchers project similarly in terms of innings pitched today, but their effectiveness diverges sharply. While Martinez’s projections indicate he may struggle, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs and 5.9 hits, Cease is expected to perform better, with projections of 2.7 earned runs and a higher strikeout figure of 6.5.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th overall, showing potential, especially with their best batter hitting .423 over the last week. In contrast, the Padres’ offense is ranked 21st, struggling particularly with power, as evidenced by their low home run total this season.

With the Reds as slight underdogs in the betting markets, their combination of home-field advantage and a capable offense suggests they may outperform expectations against a Padres team that has recently shown vulnerability.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball batters like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The San Diego Padres (19.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Christian Encarnacion-Strand is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)