Picks and Betting Guide for Orioles vs Phillies – Monday, August 04, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Philadelphia Phillies

On August 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park for the first game in their interleague series. The matchup is significant as the Phillies, with a strong record of 63-48, continue to push for a solid playoff position, while the Orioles sit at 51-61 and are struggling this season.

The Phillies are projected to send Jesus Luzardo to the mound, who has had a solid year, boasting a 9-5 record with an average ERA of 4.31. Despite the average ERA, advanced metrics suggest that Luzardo has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his impressive 3.36 xFIP. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters—numbers that indicate he should be able to handle the Orioles’ lineup effectively.

On the other side, Cade Povich will take the hill for Baltimore. Povich’s season has been challenging, reflected in his 2-5 record and a less-than-ideal ERA of 5.15. The projections show him likely to struggle, projecting just 4.7 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and only 4.7 strikeouts. Given Povich’s performance this season and the struggles of the Orioles’ offense, which ranks 16th in MLB, the Phillies will look to capitalize.

Philadelphia’s offense ranks 9th overall and has been particularly potent recently, with the team’s best hitter boasting a .444 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense has been underwhelming, sitting at 18th in team batting average. With the Phillies favored heavily at -200, their implied team total of 5.22 runs reflects their strong offensive capabilities against a struggling pitcher like Povich. Expect the Phillies to establish control early in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cade Povich is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Tyler O’Neill has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 18.6% seasonal rate to 34.6% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jesus Luzardo has gone to his slider 7.6% more often this season (36.8%) than he did last year (29.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Kyle Schwarber has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.8-mph to 99.5-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.76 Units / 16% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 away games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+195/-265)
  Jordan Westburg has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)