Picks and Betting Guide for Orioles vs Phillies – Monday, August 04, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Philadelphia Phillies

On August 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Baltimore Orioles in what marks the first game of their interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season with a 63-48 record, while the Orioles, at 51-61, are struggling to find their footing. In their last outing, the Phillies secured a solid 2-0 victory, highlighting their current form, while the Orioles fell short, losing 5-3.

The matchup on the mound features left-handed pitchers Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies and Cade Povich for the Orioles. Luzardo, ranked as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has been solid with a 9-5 record and an average ERA of 4.31 this season. His recent performance is promising; in his last start on July 29, he pitched 7 innings without allowing a run, showcasing his potential to dominate.

In contrast, Povich has struggled this season, holding a 2-5 record with a poor ERA of 5.15. His projections indicate he’s likely to pitch around 4.7 innings today, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, which is concerning given the strength of the Phillies’ offense. Philadelphia ranks 8th in the league, demonstrating their ability to produce runs, and they have a high implied team total of 5.25 runs for this game.

With the Orioles’ bullpen ranked 29th in MLB, they face an uphill battle against a Phillies lineup that is firing on all cylinders. The Phillies are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -205, making them an attractive option for bettors looking to capitalize on their current momentum.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cade Povich is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Tyler O’Neill has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 18.6% seasonal rate to 34.8% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jesus Luzardo has gone to his slider 7.6% more often this season (36.8%) than he did last year (29.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Kyle Schwarber has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.8-mph to 99.3-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.76 Units / 16% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 away games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)