Picks and Betting Guide for Mariners vs Blue Jays – Saturday, April 19, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on April 19, 2025, at Rogers Centre, the stakes are high in this American League matchup. The Blue Jays are currently holding a record of 12-8 and enjoying a strong season, while the Mariners sit at 10-10, having experienced a more average start. In their most recent outing, the Blue Jays emerged victorious against the Mariners, adding to their momentum as they look to build on that success.

Toronto is projected to start Jose Berrios, who has had a rocky season thus far, with a 5.16 ERA and ranking as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Berrios has shown some signs of bad luck with a 3.86 xFIP, suggesting that he may improve in future outings. On the other hand, Seattle will counter with Logan Gilbert, a standout with a 2.38 ERA, ranking him as the 20th best starting pitcher in the league. Gilbert has a high strikeout rate of 38.1%, which could pose challenges for a Blue Jays offense that ranks 3rd least in strikeouts.

While the Blue Jays’ offense is ranked 13th overall, they struggle with power, sitting 28th in home runs. Conversely, the Mariners boast the 7th best home run total in MLB, though they rank 26th in batting average. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities could influence the game’s outcome.

The projections indicate a close contest, with the Blue Jays’ moneyline at +110 and an implied team total of 3.57 runs, suggesting that they may be undervalued. As the Blue Jays look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, it will be intriguing to see if they can overcome the challenges posed by Gilbert and the Mariners in this pivotal matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ben Williamson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Benjamin Williamson is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Toronto (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his repertoire this year and has utilized it 26.2% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 6.5% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays ranks them as the #29 team in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.40 Units / 42% ROI)