Picks and Betting Guide for Dodgers vs Rockies – Sunday, September 29, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Colorado Rockies

The Los Angeles Dodgers, with their 97-64 record and 1st place standing in the National League West, consistently demonstrate their dominance, unlike the struggling Colorado Rockies, who have a dismal 61-100 record. As these two meet for the third game of their series, the Rockies are eager to bounce back after a 13-2 drubbing by the Dodgers on September 28. The game is set at Coors Field on September 29, 2024, featuring an intriguing pitching matchup between Ryan Feltner and Anthony Banda.

The Rockies are in the midst of an underwhelming season, and their starter Ryan Feltner, ranked #178 among MLB starting pitchers, mirrors their struggles. Despite a decent 4.66 ERA, his peripheral stats suggest some bad luck, offering a silver lining in his otherwise grim 3-10 win-loss record. He’s up against a potent Dodgers offense, ranked 2nd in the league, featuring the exceptional Shohei Ohtani, who boasts a .310 batting average and 54 home runs this season.

On the other hand, the Dodgers are favored to continue their winning ways with Anthony Banda taking the mound. Despite his superb 3.14 ERA, projections indicate that he’s benefiting from some fortunate breaks this season. Banda faces a Rockies lineup that’s been average at best, ranked 17th overall in offense. The Rockies’ bats are highlighted by Charlie Blackmon, who’s been swinging a hot bat recently, hitting .350 over the last week.

Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring affair, with the game total set at a lofty 11.0 runs. Notably, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 58% projected win probability, slightly above their implied chances. As the Dodgers aim to maintain their commanding division lead, the Rockies will need to capitalize on Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment to gain any advantage in this uphill battle.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-175)
  Colorado’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Tommy Edman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Shohei Ohtani projects as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+135)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today (.293 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .304 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 63 games at home (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+19.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-180/+140)
  Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.20 Units / 57% ROI)