Phillies vs Pirates Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Friday July 19, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash on July 19, 2024, at PNC Park in a National League matchup. The Pirates, with an even 48-48 record, are having an average season, while the Phillies are sitting pretty at 62-34, reflecting a great season thus far. This game marks the first in the series between the two teams.

On the mound, the Pirates will start left-hander Martin Perez, who has had a rough season with a 1-5 Win/Loss record and a 5.15 ERA. Despite his struggles, Perez’s 4.43 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could potentially perform better going forward. On the other side, the Phillies will counter with right-hander Aaron Nola, who boasts an 11-4 record and a stellar 3.38 ERA. Nola is currently ranked as the #20 best starting pitcher in MLB, underscoring his elite status.

Offensively, the Pirates have been struggling, ranking 28th in MLB. Their team batting average is 26th, home runs 21st, and stolen bases 24th. In contrast, the Phillies’ offense is a powerhouse, ranking 3rd overall. They are 3rd in batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases.

In their last outing, the Pirates dominated the White Sox with a 9-4 victory, whereas the Phillies were surprisingly thrashed by the Athletics, losing 18-3. Despite the recent blowout loss, the Phillies remain the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates have a 45% win probability, suggesting this could be a closer game than the betting market anticipates. The Pirates’ bullpen, ranked 7th, and the Phillies’ bullpen, ranked 3rd, will both play crucial roles in determining the outcome.

For bettors looking for value, the Pirates might be worth considering given their projected win probability is 5% higher than the market suggests. The public’s reluctance to back underdogs often creates more enticing odds, making Pittsburgh an interesting play in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 5.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Kyle Schwarber has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Martin Perez’s change-up percentage has fallen by 5.8% from last year to this one (27.2% to 21.4%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (34.4) suggests that Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck this year with his 24.4 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In today’s matchup, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.8% rate (80th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 53 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 80 games (+19.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
  Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)