Phillies vs Giants Bets and Betting Trends – 7/09/25

Philadelphia Phillies

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 9, 2025, for the third game of a competitive series. The Giants currently sit at 51-42, showing above-average performance this season, while the Phillies boast a solid 53-39 record, marking their campaign as great. In their last meeting, Philadelphia emerged victorious, continuing their momentum against a struggling San Francisco lineup.

Starting for the Giants is Justin Verlander, who has had a tough season, posting a disappointing 0-6 record with a below-average ERA of 4.84. Although Verlander ranks 132nd in MLB starting pitcher Power Rankings, indicating below-average performance, his 4.27 FIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround. Meanwhile, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who holds a better 7-5 record and an average ERA of 4.44, ranking him 40th among MLB starters. Luzardo’s projections show he is expected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, making him a more reliable option in this matchup.

Offensively, the Giants rank 24th in MLB, struggling significantly with a team batting average that reflects their season’s challenges. In stark contrast, the Phillies sit firmly in the 10th spot overall with strong offensive rankings, particularly at 8th in team batting average. This disparity gives Philadelphia an edge, especially with their best hitter recently recording impressive stats, including 8 RBIs and 3 home runs in just 7 games.

The current moneyline suggests that this matchup will be close, with the Giants at +115 and the Phillies at -135. Betting markets reflect the confidence in the Phillies, who project to score an average of 4.23 runs compared to the Giants’ average of 3.77 runs. With a potent lineup facing an underperforming pitcher, the Phillies may capitalize on this opportunity to extend their winning streak over the Giants.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 9th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Heliot Ramos has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.05 Units / 23% ROI)