Phillies vs Giants Bets and Betting Trends – 7/09/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 9, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing National League clash. The Giants, currently 51-42, are having an above-average season, while the Phillies sit at 53-39, showcasing a great performance thus far. In their last encounter, the Giants edged out the Phillies 4-3, adding a bit of momentum to their side as they look to capitalize on this series.

Starting for the Giants is Justin Verlander, who has struggled this season with a 0-6 record and a below-average ERA of 4.84. His latest outing on July 4 saw him allowing 6 earned runs over just 3 innings, raising concerns about his current form. Despite being ranked 135th among starting pitchers, suggesting he has been unlucky according to his 4.27 FIP, Verlander will need to find a way to keep the Phillies’ potent offense at bay.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. With a much better Win/Loss record of 7-5 and an average ERA of 4.44, Luzardo has shown signs of consistency. His last start was rocky as well, giving up 5 earned runs in just 2 innings, but he still ranks as the 40th best pitcher in MLB.

From an offensive perspective, the Phillies rank 10th in MLB, while the Giants struggle significantly, sitting 24th. The projections suggest that while the Giants might put up a fight, the Phillies, with their superior hitting and a bullpen ranked 27th, could exploit the Giants’ weaknesses. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. With the Giants’ implied team total at 3.81 runs, there’s potential for an upset, but they’ll need their bats to wake up against a solid contender.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jesus Luzardo’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 9th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Heliot Ramos has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 away games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-4000)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 100% ROI)