Padres vs Cardinals Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/24/2025

San Diego Padres

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the San Diego Padres on July 24, 2025, they find themselves in the midst of a crucial series. The Cardinals are currently 52-51, showcasing an average season, while the Padres hold a 55-47 record, indicating their above-average performance. With both teams struggling lately—St. Louis lost 6-0 to the Padres yesterday, and San Diego fell short in a close matchup, losing 3-2—the stakes are high for both sides as they look to rebound.

Projected starters Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish present an intriguing matchup. Gray, who is ranked 21st among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a mixed season with a Win/Loss record of 9-4 and an ERA of 4.04. Though Gray has the potential to perform better than his statistics suggest—his xFIP of 2.89 indicates some bad luck—he comes off a rough outing where he allowed 8 earned runs over just 3 innings pitched.

On the other hand, Yu Darvish has struggled significantly, sporting an alarming ERA of 6.08. With a Win/Loss record of 0-2 this year, he has only made three starts. The projections indicate both pitchers will average around 5 innings, but their performance trends raise concerns.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 14th overall in MLB, benefiting from a solid but unspectacular lineup. Their best hitter has a 0.780 OPS this season, hinting at some promise. However, the Padres’ offense struggles, sitting at 23rd overall, and will need to step up against a pitcher like Gray if they hope to secure a win.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Yu Darvish is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Sonny Gray’s cutter usage has decreased by 5.7% from last season to this one (17.8% to 12.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.2 mph compared to last year’s 91.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+16.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)