Orioles vs Twins Game Highlights – Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Baltimore Orioles on May 7, 2025, at Target Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 16-20 and the Orioles at 13-21. The Twins are projected to start Simeon Woods Richard, who has shown some promise with a 2-2 record and a 4.03 ERA this year. However, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky, as his xERA and FIP are both elevated.

In contrast, the Orioles will send Charlie Morton to the mound, who has had a nightmarish season with an 0-6 record and a staggering 9.76 ERA. Morton’s high walk rate (14.6 BB%) poses a challenge against a Twins offense that has been one of the least patient in the league, ranking 6th in fewest walks drawn. This dynamic could favor Morton, although his struggles have been well-documented.

In their previous matchup on May 6, the Twins decisively defeated the Orioles 9-1, showcasing their offensive firepower. The Twins’ best hitter has been on a hot streak, boasting a .467 batting average over the last week, contributing significantly to their recent win. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ best hitter has also been productive, hitting .400 during the same stretch, but their overall offensive output has been underwhelming, ranking 23rd in MLB.

Despite the Twins’ overall lackluster offensive statistics, they are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -130 and a projected team total of 4.71 runs. Given Morton’s struggles and the Twins’ recent success, this could be an opportunity for Minnesota to capitalize on their home advantage and build momentum in this series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Charlie Morton’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.1-mph decrease from last season’s 94.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Adley Rutschman has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Simeon Woods Richardson has tallied 14.5 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Willi Castro’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 90.6-mph figure last year has fallen to 81.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.30 Units / 67% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 42% ROI)